In December 2022, the "New” New York Panel – an advisory group launched by Governor Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams – released a wide-ranging policy plan to meet the dual challenges of confronting lingering pandemic-era effects and spurring an equitable economic recovery, addressing the challenges of changed patterns of work, commuting, and commercial activity. 

And yet, two employment trends not described in that headline-grabbing report deserve greater attention. First, over the past two years, growth has been concentrated in a group of low- and moderate-paying industries without clear paths for advancement. Second, the longer-term employment predictions of the New York State Department of Labor suggest that more attention needs to be paid to a fundamental challenge: the substantial predicted growth of low-paying and low-skilled jobs over the next decade. 

Between February 2020 and November 2022, 20 industries in New York City showed a net gain in jobs. (See Figure 1, below.) Growth was concentrated in a group of low- and moderate-paying industries, including home health care, warehousing, and temporary help jobs, many of which have few benefits and no clear paths for career advancement. These low-to moderate-paying jobs typically pay under $70,000 annually (with home health services and individual and family services averaging annual pay of less than half of that). 

Other net growth areas have been tech as well as industries in which New York City has a competitive edge, like marketing and the arts. However, the first category of low- and moderate-paying industries (Group A) accounts for nearly 100,000 new jobs, or almost 64 percent of the citywide net jobs added during this 33-month period.

Recent job growth parallels what the  State Department of Labor latest 10-year forecast (2018-2028) suggests will continue. In its decade forecasts for employment growth in New York City (from 2018 to 2028), the State DOL predicts a net growth of 600,000 jobs (See Figure 2). Roughly two-thirds will require less than a four-year college degree; 40 percent will require a high school diploma or less (See Figure 3).

Considering where job growth has been concentrated in the past two years, and where jobs are likely to grow over the next several years, the picture of prospective employment demand raises concerns about job quality and suggests that active labor market policies should be part of long-term policy-making, not just pandemic-era recovery. These issues, as well as the role of the city’s workforce system, were explored in more depth in our recent report, “NYC’s Unsettled Covid-19 Era Labor Market,” which shows that recent job openings – with a concentration in lower-paid occupations – bears out these concerns.

Of the 25 occupations with the largest projected 2018-28 net job growth in New York City, topping the list are home health aides and personal care aides (mainly Medicare-funded positions to assist elderly clients and allow them to remain in their home). The projected growth for these two occupations alone will account for one in every three net new jobs in New York City (See Figure 4). 

These 25 occupations will account for 63 percent of all net projected job growth. Fifteen of them will require less than a four-year college degree, and will account for 77 percent of the growth in these top 25 occupations. They will grow an average of 32 percent over 10 years, more than 2.5 times the overall 12.4 percent projected growth for New York City.

Of the 25 occupations with the largest projected 2018-28 net job growth in New York City, topping the list are home health aides and personal care aides (mainly Medicare-funded positions to assist elderly clients and allow them to remain in their home). The projected growth for these two occupations alone will account for one in every three net new jobs in New York City (See Figure 4). 

These 25 occupations will account for 63 percent of all net projected job growth. Fifteen of them will require less than a four-year college degree, and will account for 77 percent of the growth in these top 25 occupations. They will grow an average of 32 percent over 10 years, more than 2.5 times the overall 12.4 percent projected growth for New York City.

Our recent research by the Center for New York City Affairs showed that the State Department of Labor employment projections have been playing out over the past two years (from Feb 2020 to Nov 2022) in New York City. Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic, job growth nevertheless continues to follow the projected path. Considering the recent and projected job growth of the workforce – and how economic opportunity may be concentrated in occupations with low educational requirements – should help set top priorities for the state and city’s policymakers. 

For example, as part of her recent Executive Budget, Governor Hochul proposed indexing the state minimum wage, which hasn’t been adjusted since reaching $15.00 an hour in New York City at the end of 2018. In her State of the State address, the governor noted that minimum wage workers are disproportionately women and workers of color. However, the governor’s proposal is severely flawed and fails to “catch-up” workers for the considerable erosion in the minimum wage’s purchasing power, particularly in light of 40-year high inflation levels over the past two years. 

A far better approach is embodied in legislation introduced by Assemblywoman Latoya Joyner and state Senator Jessica Ramos that would index the minimum wage to inflation and productivity growth after increasing it first to account for the inflation and labor productivity growth that has taken place since 2018. The Ramos-Joyner Raise the Wage Act bill would lift the minimum wage in three steps to $21.25 by 2026 for New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County, and $20 for the rest of the state. Concentrated projected job growth in occupations with lower education requirements and pay spotlights the importance of addressing cost of living concerns, especially for minimum wage workers.

The Center for New York City Affairs’s Economic Updates will be released the second and fourth Thursdays of each month. Upcoming Economic Updates will address the effects of a minimum wage increase, non-compete and forced arbitration clauses for independent contractors, and follow-up policy recommendations for an improved NYC workforce system. 

The Center for New York City Affairs is also pleased to announce that George Sweeting, longtime Deputy Director (and recently, Acting Director) at the New York City Independent Budget Office, has joined CNYCA's Economic and Fiscal Policy Unit  as Senior Fellow for Fiscal Policy.