While New York State schools have been experiencing declining enrollment for much of the past decade, the pandemic accelerated this trend in every region in the state, with New York leading the nation in enrollment loss between 2019-20 and 2021-22.

Analysis of K-12 enrollment trends over the past five years reveals major shifts across the state, showing decreases at traditional public and private schools and increases at charters and homeschools, signaling that traditional schools may not be meeting families’ evolving needs.

Recent enrollment losses added to the declines going back to the 2017-18 school year, with enrollment in traditional public schools dropping by eight percent between the 2017-18 and 2021-2022 school years.

The maps below show that traditional public school enrollment fell in every geographic region between the 2017-18 and 2021-22 school years while homeschool and charter school enrollment increased in every region that has charter school options. (Private school enrollment also declined in all regions except the Mid-Hudson.)

Shifts in Student Enrollment by School Type and Region

Trends in grades K-2 align with information gathered from pandemic polling. A poll conducted by The Education Trust–NY in fall 2021 showed that about 11 percent of parents delayed enrolling their child in kindergarten.

Since the 2017-18 school year, the number of public charter schools across the state increased from 281 to 330. New York’s charter schools experienced large increases in enrollment before the pandemic, with even greater increases during the first year of the pandemic.

As the next line graph shows, traditional public schools experienced a decrease in enrollment of students from both low-income and non-low-income backgrounds. Statewide, about 163,000 fewer students from low-income backgrounds were enrolled in traditional public schools in the fall of 2021 compared to the fall of 2017.

During the same school years, as the next graph shows, charter schools experienced a 26 percent increase of students from low-income backgrounds and a 40 percent increase of students from non-low-income backgrounds.

Starting in 2017, the state’s “Big Five” school districts and Albany experienced at least a nine percent loss in student enrollment. K-12 enrollment in the Rochester City School District and the New York City Department of Education dropped by 15 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

Although the pandemic exacerbated enrollment drops in all six school districts, losses were not evenly distributed. Albany, Rochester, and Syracuse experienced the largest percent decrease in the first year of the pandemic. Buffalo, Yonkers, and New York City experienced larger percent decreases during the second year.

Clearly, New Yorkers are making choices about schools outside of their traditional district assignments and school placements, signaling a need to better align school offerings to what parents value. To accomplish that, leaders of traditional public schools should:

Create infrastructure for authentic parent engagement. Schools with effective parent engagement strategies can better understand and address issues and barriers that can lead to student disenrollment. Districts should leverage the expertise of staff to ensure that every parent has at least one reliable adult to contact for information or solutions, should also create opportunities for shared decision making with parents and caregivers, and leverage policies that support participation in school-level planning and decision making.

Collect and share the bright spots. Even before the pandemic, traditional public schools were experiencing enrollment declines in New York; however, that does not mean that there are not great schools available for the state’s students. State and district leaders should work to amplify and scale promising practices, with targeted outreach to parents.

Examine the root causes of enrollment changes. Some of the enrollment changes in New York may be driven by declining birth rates; however, additional factors may be contributing. Districts should work to identify them by, for example, conducting exit interviews with families who are leaving the school or district. If parents are opting for charter, private, or homeschool options, leadership should seek to understand the reasons behind these decisions.

Provide support and technical assistance to districts to address chronic absenteeism and re-engagement of students who stopped attending school during the pandemic. The New York State Education Department should utilize new federal and state funds to provide technical assistance and guidance that can support districts with re-engaging students and their families. It should support districts to solicit feedback from students and families about their experiences to improve student learning experiences, programs, and course offerings.

Provide more engaging and rigorous educational options for students. Schools should be investing their federal American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) funds in evidence-based math and reading instruction, while offering all students access to advanced coursework and dual enrollment programs. Students are also interested in coursework that is relevant to their future. These courses could include coding, data science, and media production. Districts should learn more about students’ desires, adjust course offerings and extracurricular activities to fit student interest, and help re-engage students who are chronically absent or who are disengaged from school.

Because of the fiscal implications associated with enrollment loss, state and district leaders should also be preparing for difficult decisions ahead. They should focus on informing the community of enrollment projections and gathering input on ways to keep students and families attending district schools, while also making plans to right-size their system.

The Education Trust-NY is a statewide policy and advocacy organization focused on building awareness of gaps in education equity and opportunity and fostering ideas that create lasting change. This Urban Matters is excerpted and adapted, with the permission and cooperation of The Education Trust-NY, from their February 2023 report “Shifting Student Populations.”

Photo by: InsideSchools

Traditional Schools Are Losing Students. Here's the Picture - And Some Prescriptions.