The youth disconnection rate – the share of young people ages 16 to 24 who are neither working nor in school – is a strong indicator of a community’s resources and a telling gauge of its residents’ access to opportunity.

During their teens and early 20s, young people develop many of the capabilities required to live flourishing lives: they gain knowledge and earn credentials, develop social skills and networks, come to understand their strengths and preferences, and learn to handle stressful events and regulate their emotions, to name just a few.

At school and on the job, connected young people build relationships with encouraging adults whose job it is to help them imagine their futures, get their minds around the many different routes to rewarding and well-paid careers, set short- and long-term goals, and lay the groundwork to realize them; they have a chance to learn about the world and support to envision their potential role in it.

But what about young people who leave high school before graduation, are unable to transition from high school to college or career and technical education programs, or struggle to find or hold onto jobs? Unlike their connected peers, who tend to have knowledgeable guides to help them navigate the transition to adulthood, these young people often struggle to see a way forward.

Out-of-school, out-of-work youth, who are disproportionately Black and Latino and tend to live in low-income communities, also have dreams and aspirations, but have far less support to make them a reality.

In Newark, 18.4 percent of teens and young adults ages 16 to 24 are not in school and not working. The Newark rate is 7.5 percentage points higher than the national rate (10.9 percent) and 9.0 points higher than the rate in New Jersey as a whole (9.4 percent).

Unfortunately, Covid-19’s harmful and potentially persistent effects made connection more difficult for Newark’s young people. In Newark, the youth disconnection rate had been on a general decline for several years from peaks in 2013 and 2015. Covid-19’s arrival overturned the trend, leaving Newark with a disconnection rate of 22.0 percent in 2021 – a sharp jump from its rate of 15.6 percent in 2019.

“Virtual school was probably the worst thing that ever happened,” one young person told us. “A lot of kids dropped out because of it, there were a whole lot of absences, everyone’s on their phone. We [had] a choice to make, and [not everybody] made the right choice.”

While New Jersey and the country as a whole have experienced a sharp recovery since the height of Covid-19, Newark’s disconnection rate remains above pre-pandemic levels.

Though Covid-19 affected everyone, its burden fell disproportionately on low-income communities of color, which are also disproportionately home to the highest rates of youth disconnection. And there are reasons to be concerned that the effects of the pandemic on the young people in these communities will reverberate well into the future: recent research by the Education Recovery Scorecard project showed that by 2022, the typical student in the country’s poorest school districts had lost three-quarters of a year in math learning, twice the decline seen in the richest districts, and also lost more ground in reading than their more affluent peers; these sharp losses worsened the wide and long-standing gap in learning outcomes between rich and poor districts.

If not successfully addressed, this learning loss will result in higher rates of high school dropout, fewer students transitioning from high school to post-secondary education, and fewer entry-level workers with the skills needed for many jobs in the coming years.

While some school districts clawed back lost ground from 2022 to 2023, many poorer school districts across the nation still lag behind their 2019 achievement levels. The Newark Public School District lost roughly half a grade level in reading and more than a full grade level in math from 2019 to 2023 (as shown here).

The large share of young people who are neither working nor in school will mean more adults whose long-term well-being and economic security are at risk. Using data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, the gold-standard longitudinal study of American families that has run since 1968, Measure of America determined that by the time they reach their 30s, people who worked or were in school throughout their teens and early 20s earn $38,400 more per year and are 45 percent more likely to own a home, 42 percent more likely to be employed, and 52 percent more likely to report excellent or good health than those who had been disconnected as young people.

Research shows that youth disconnection is associated with lower levels of educational attainment, higher rates of substance use, worse health, less stable relationships, and more criminal activity. For young people who are already parents, the chances that their children will grow up in poverty increase with disconnection.

Early successes, caring mentors, well-resourced institutions, and lucky breaks can set a young person on the path to a flourishing adulthood; closed doors, adverse events, underinvestment, and limited connections can block off a host of rewarding and joyful paths, leading to a future of limited horizons and unrealized potential.

Kristen Lewis is director and Alex Powers is associate director at the Measure of America team at the Social Science Research Council. This Urban Matters is excerpted from Measure of America’s newly published “Portrait of Newark,” produced in partnership with the Newark Opportunity Youth Network.

During 2018-2019, Measure of America permitted us to excerpt portions of their “Portrait of New York City” in Urban Matters. We’re delighted to work with them again.

Opening Photo: Courtesy of Newark Opportunity Youth Network

Closing Photo: Mitch Altman

How Covid-19 Set Back Progress For Newark’s Young People