New York State’s Lagging Recovery From the Covid-19 Pandemic

This report documents several trends that have shaped the distinctive, and profoundly worrisome, Covid-19 economic and employment impact in New York State. The Empire State’s 805,000 pandemic jobs deficit as of October was three times that of the nation overall. With 6.4 percent of national jobs before the pandemic, New York now accounts for 19.2 percent of all the pandemic’s U.S. job loss. While the country overall has regained 80 percent of jobs lost during the first two months of widespread business closures, New York has gotten back only 60 percent of its steeper loss. Workers in the face-to-face industries account for 79 percent of those who have lost jobs; employees in remote-working industries account for 12 percent. Three-quarters of those losing jobs were earning less than $60,000 a year, and 69 percent had less than a four-year college degree. Workers of color were also disproportionately dislocated and their unemployment rates are much higher than for white workers. Although much has been made nationally of record rates of job openings and workers quitting jobs, New York ranks lowest or second lowest among the 50 states in job openings, hires, and quits. The State budget office forecasts that the state will not re-gain its pre-pandemic employment level until the spring of 2024, four years after the onset of the pandemic. The report concludes with recommendations for State policy actions to support recovery and building back better.

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Editor’s note: This is part of a regular biweekly Covid-19 Economic Update prepared by economist James Parrott of the Center for New York City Affairs with the support of the Consortium for Worker Education and the 21st Century ILGWU Heritage Fund.