Calm before the storm: Upward New York City job, labor force, and population revisions for 2024, but economic turbulence ahead
Highlights:
The city’s total payroll employment level for December 2024 rose 134,000 or 2.8 percent over the prior December level, boosted by an upward revision of 69,000 in the State Labor Department’s 2025 annual benchmark update. The largest upward revision (22,400) was in motion picture and sound recording production.
This upward benchmark revision boosted the state’s 2024 private employment growth rose to 1.8 percent, exceeding the state’s 1.5 percent growth pace for 2023.
New York state’s job growth has been driven by growth in New York City. Comparing February 2025 to before the pandemic, the city has experienced a 3.4 percent increase in private job growth, while the suburbs and upstate New York registered a net 0.2 percent job decline.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also shows an upward revision in the size of New York City’s labor force by 100,000 jobs for 2024. However, resident employment was only 88,000 jobs higher in the revised data, leading to downward revisions in the employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.
In New York City, the overall private sector employment level for the first two months of 2025 was little changed from the end of the prior year. Now, however, all eyes are focused on the economic turbulence created by President Trump’s erratic tariff announcements. Coupled with what we have seen so far from Republicans regarding possible draconian federal budget cuts, the year ahead is fraught with the greatest economic uncertainty in years, if not decades. Since business and consumer confidence falters when drowning in uncertainty, it is hard to be optimistic about near-term labor market prospects.
Figure 1 shows the December 2024-February 2025 employment change for CNYCA’s three broad industry categories, along with December-December changes for the past three years based on the State Labor Department’s annual benchmark employment revisions. Local government added nearly 10,000 jobs during the first two months of 2025 and home health care and other parts of the health care and social assistance sector continued to add jobs. While the jobs picture was relatively flat across many industries, Wall Street and tech had slightly lower employment levels compared to December 2024.
Figure 1
Annual employment revisions for the past two years announced by the State Labor Department in early March did bring some generally positive news for New York City. The city’s total payroll employment level for December 2024 was revised upward in the 2025 benchmark employment revisions by 69,000 jobs. While this was only 0.9 percent of the previously reported December 2024 employment level, in most states and in the rest of New York State employment levels were revised downward.
By far, in both absolute and relative terms, the largest upward revision was in motion picture and sound recording production, where the December 2024 level was revised upward by 22,400 (See Figure 2). In a related industry, media streaming distribution, there was a 9.1 percent positive revision. Both industries had been affected by an actors and writers strike in the summer and fall of 2023. There was also an upward revision of 12,800 jobs in the construction industry, and an unusual 12,100-job positive revision in State government employment in New York City that was retroactively implemented stretching back for several years. There was a significant 6,500-job downward revision to childcare employment that represented a 14 percent drop from the previously reported level. Double-digit percentage revisions, such as those in State government and child care, are unusual in the history of this benchmarking process.
Figure 2
These payroll employment revisions improved the relative post-pandemic picture of the performance of the remote-working industries in New York City (see the percent change columns in the middle and right-hand side of Figure 1). As of February, the remote-working industries as a group had increased net employment by 3.4 percent since the onset of the pandemic in February 2020. This net change was considerably higher than the pre-benchmark Feb. 2020-October 2024 0.4 percent growth. The sizable upward revision in construction jobs helped offset some of the continued weakness in several face-to-face group industries. Overall, since the onset of the pandemic, face-to-face industries have seen a 6.0 percent employment decline. The upward revisions in state government and home health care employment lifted the essential industries from a net 12.3 percent gain to 15.2 percent growth.
While the growth pace recorded in 2024 (December 2023-December 2024) was roughly similar to the prior year’s growth for the essential and face-to-face sectors, the remote-working sectors recorded 2.8 percent job growth in 2024 compared to a 2.2 percent decline in 2023.
Private job trends for New York State and the rest of the state outside of New York City
The strength of New York City’s upward benchmark revision through December 2024 meant that the state’s private employment growth rose by 1.8 percent in 2024 (measured from December 2023 to December 2024), exceeding the state’s 1.5 percent growth pace for 2023.
This upward benchmark revision was also unique in the context of slowing national job growth.
The annual revision showed a 600,000-job downward revision for all U.S. states combined. For the nation overall, private job growth slowed in 2024 to 1.2 percent from 1.4 percent in 2023. New York State had one of the largest positive revisions (40,000) in net private employment, but this was entirely due to New York City’s upward revision of 69,000 jobs. As a point of comparison, Texas, California, Missouri, and Pennsylvania all had sizable downward benchmark revisions. However, despite the revision, New York State’s and New York City’s post-pandemic job growth still lags the majority of other large states and the nation as a whole.
Additionally, this revision shows the disparate growth within New York State. In 2024, the city gained private sector jobs at a 3.0 percent pace while the rest of the state slowed to a net gain of only 0.5 percent (see Figure 3). Comparing February 2025 to before the pandemic, New York State has recorded a 1.6 percent private job growth, but it has been driven by job growth in the city, while the suburbs and upstate New York have experienced a net decline of 0.2 percent.
Figure 3
The latest New York City population and labor force revisions
The latest Census Bureau data show that New York City’s population increased by 87,000 between July 2023 and July 2024, and that the July 2023 population estimate was revised upward by 133,000. This reversed what had earlier been reported as a decline in the previous year to a net gain of 35,000. As of July 2024, the city’s population was 8.478 million, still more than 300,000 below the April 1, 2020 decennial Census. The city’s population fell by 448,000 from April 1, 2020 to July 2022 before beginning to recover in 2023.
The number of births in New York City has been trending down for several years, which follows the national trend. An upsurge in net international migration over the past three years, to the highest annual level (118,500 in 2024) in this century, propelled the largest overall net population gain for New York City since 2014. While the city has experienced net domestic outmigration every year since 2000, net domestic outmigration eased in 2024.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises labor force data. In the latest revision released in early March, the size of New York City’s labor force was revised upward by 100,000 for 2024. The working age population was revised upward by 239,000. Resident employment was 88,000 higher in the revised data, while the employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate were both revised downward by 0.8 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.