New York City’s economy is in a more precarious state than at any time since the 1970s fiscal and economic crisis. The current public health and economic crisis far surpasses the personal, psychological, and economic devastation wrought by 9/11, the 2008-09 Great Recession, or Superstorm Sandy. The social distancing public health imperative at present has incapacitated a substantial portion of the city’s economy. Job losses and new unemployment claims that have mounted since the beginning of the pandemic are unprecedented. An estimated 1.2 million New Yorkers (or 27 percent of all private sector workers) will be jobless by the end of April in an environment where businesses have been ordered to close and non-essential personnel told to stay at home. This report identifies the workers and industries that are expected to experience the most profound displacement and economic losses as business closures and social distancing measures demanded by the health crisis continue. The daunting economic challenges New York City faces in the months and years ahead are discussed.

JAMES PARROTT IS DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICIES AT THE CENTER FOR NEW YORK CITY AFFAIRS AT THE NEW SCHOOL.